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جمعه 02 آذر 1403
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کاربران عضو: 1
کاربران مهمان: 153
کاربران حاضر: 154
Forecasting model of Shanghai and CRB commodity indexes
Abstract:

This paper examines the long-run relationship between the Shanghai index and CRB commodity index. We run our vector error correction model (VECM) for two sub-samples as pre-crisis period and post-crisis period. In pre-crisis period, there is strong bidirectional causality link between the Shanghai and CRB. In post-crisis period, there is no causality between the indices. In the second part of the article, we employ Fuzzy System Modeling (FSM) to increase the performances of root mean-square error, R2 and Adjusted R2. We show the results of our analysis for both Shanghai and CRB indexes. We have demonstrated the results for a good number of our investigations ANFIS, GENFIS, Classical LSE and three versions of support vector regression. For both Shanghai and CRB indexes, our FSMIFF with LSE obtains better results than all other models we have investigated and thus are more suitable for forecasting stable and unstable stock market behavior

Keywords: Shanghai index CRB commodity index Vector error correction model Fuzzy system model
Author(s): .
Source: Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 9275–9281
Subject: مدیریت مالی
Category: مقاله مجله
Release Date: 2012
No of Pages: 7
Price(Tomans): 0
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