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شنبه 03 آذر 1403
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Continuous Chain Ladder: Reformulating and generalizing a classical insurance problem
Abstract:

The single most important number in the accounts of a non-life insurance company is likely to be the estimate of the outlying liabilities. Since non-life insurance is a major part of our financial industry amounting to up to 5% of BNP in western countries), it is perhaps surprising that mathematical statisticians and experts of operational research (the natural experts of the underlying problem) have left the intellectual work on estimating this number to actuaries. This paper establishes this important problem in a vocabulary accessible to experts of operations research and mathematical statistics and it can be seen as an open invitation to these two important groups of scholars to join this research. The paper introduces a number of new methodologies and approaches to estimating outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance. In particular it reformulates the classical actuarial technique as a histogram type of approach and improves this classical technique by replacing this histogram by a kernel smoother

Keywords: Chain Ladder Claims reserves Reserve risk Multiplicative bias correction Density estimation Cross-validation Smoothing Kernel
Author(s): .
Source: Expert Systems with Applications 40 (2013) 5588–5603
Subject: مدیریت بیمه
Category: مقاله مجله
Release Date: 2013
No of Pages: 16
Price(Tomans): 0
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