A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management

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A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management
Abstract: This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for the modeling and management of project risks andrisk interactions. This is a crucial activity in project management, as projects are facing a growing complexitywith higher uncertainties and tighter constraints. Existing classical methods have limitations for modelingthe complexity of project risks. For example, some phenomena like chain reactions and loops are not properlytaken into account. This will influence the effectiveness of decisions for risk response planning and will leadto unexpected and undesired behavior in the project. Based on the concepts of DSS and the classical steps ofproject risk management, we develop an integrated DSS framework including the identification, assessmentand analysis of the risk network. In the network, the nodes are the risks and the edges represent the causeand effect potential interactions between risks. The proposed simulation-based model makes it possible tore-evaluate risks and their priorities, to suggest and test mitigation actions, and then to support project managerin making decisions regarding risk response actions. An example of application is provided to illustrate the utility of the model.
Keywords:	Project risk management Complexity Risk network Simulation Decision support system
Author(s):	Chao Fang , Franck Marle
Source:	Decision Support Systems 52 (2012) 635–644
Subject:	مدیریت پروژه
Category:	مقاله مجله
Release Date:	2012
No of Pages:	10
Price(Tomans):	0
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